Weakness and prey - will that formula change?
The home team will be tested. FC Tokyo, who considers Sagan Tosu to be a big weakness.
After all, they are in a 5-game losing streak in the league. They haven't won a single game since October 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. During that time, the one leading the team was former coach Myung Hwi KIM. This season is different. Under the new coach Kenta KAWAI, they are starting over and the main players have also changed significantly.
However, it is. The new Sagan is still a dangerous opponent.
Regardless of offense or defense, the bold and precise style of play is the same as before (during the previous manager's era). In addition, their running ability has evolved and can even be seen in their progress. It's clear at a glance when looking at the numbers. At the end of Sec. 9, their average distance covered per game (125.1km) and number of sprints (226) were both in 1st place.
[Source] From J.League Official Website
Of course, the positional play introduced during the Kinmae era continues. Each player changes their position while watching the movements of the defense, quickly advancing the ball. The high average ball possession rate per game is also a reflection of this. 54.3% (as of the end of the 9th round) is the fourth highest number. This is despite the fact that many key players from last season have left.
Manager Kawai, while making his first challenge in the J1 league, is a rising star who is familiar with the ABCs of modern football. Not only did he lead Ehime FC (then J2), but he also played a role in implementing positional play as a coach for Montedio Yamagata (J2). In addition, he did not overlook reinforcements.
The symbolic acquisitions would be Akito FUKUTA and Naoyuki FUJITA. Or should we say "return to their old club"? The former has experienced positional play under a Spanish coach while playing for Albirex Niigata, and the latter has also experienced it while playing for Cerezo Osaka. Furthermore, the coach who influenced FUKUTA is now leading Tokyo this season, Albert PUIG ORTONEDA. FUKUTA is now the new "brain" of the revamped Sagan team.
Against their unchanging archrival, how will Tokyo fare? In contrast to Tosu, they have completely revamped their game model. The banner that coach Albert PUIG ORTONEDA has raised is "Position & Possession". The greater the difference from the conventional model, the more the battle's structure can change. It can be said that Tokyo's chance of victory lies there. The question is, how much has changed?
The first focus will be on build-up.
Currently in the midst of a revolution. There is variation in skill level in every game. Tosu's press is both precise and powerful. How can we avoid it and invade the enemy's territory? There is both hope and anxiety.
When Tosu switches to defense, they relentlessly apply pressure from the front. Moreover, they almost always play man-to-man during high press. They catch any player who is free on the ball side and do not allow them to create an easy exit. Then, they force the opponent to kick a long ball and recover it, turning it into another attack.
The basic formation is 3-4-2-1, but it can also change freely depending on the opponent. This means taking a position that is easy to penetrate from the front. Tokyo's formation is 4-3-3, so in defensive situations it becomes 3-4-1-2. This structure is similar to that of Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo, who they faced in the 9th round.
Moreover, their transition between offense and defense is quick, and their movements to catch opponents are also swift. Even if the attacking side changes their positions frequently, the Tosu players are able to keep up. Naturally, it is difficult for the attacking side to create openings. This means that Tokyo had almost no positional advantage in their match against Sapporo, which was one of the reasons why they struggled with their build-up play.
There are two main ways to open up the game. One is to increase the tempo of passing and release the ball before being marked by the opponent. The other is to utilize space instead of players. The target is behind the last line - sending a player and the ball there to quickly turn the opponent who is coming forward.
Tokyo has been using the latter (second option) a lot so far. Center backs Masato MORISHIGE and Yasuki KIMOTO send long passes behind the line, which often leads to chances. However, good passes don't always go through. When the opponent's press is strong, there is no room to aim and the focus shifts to escaping the danger zone.
In that case, the key is the first option. How to increase the tempo of the pass work and find the exit. In particular, the work of the midfield trio of Takuya AOKI, Shuto ABE, and Kuryu MATSUKI will be crucial. They will be required to participate in the build-up play and move the ball forward while being tightly marked by the opponent. In other words, they will be responsible for opening up attacking routes in the center. The more opportunities they have, the more the game will tilt in Tokyo's favor.
Fortunately, there is also experience. Including the previously mentioned Sapporo, we have already played against strong teams such as Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga. How will we make use of that? At the very least, we should not be overwhelmed by their intensity.
And the second focus is how to seal Tosu's possession. For Tokyo players, switching between offense and defense, competing for the ball, and fighting for second balls are all desired. While there is room for improvement in efficiently "trapping" the opponent, the intensity itself is extremely high. In that regard, is it rather Tokyo's "unchanging" strength?
By the way, the key to Kyoto's first victory over unbeaten Tosu since the opening of the season was their switching, ball control, and second ball set. They rushed with high intensity in both attack and defense from the kick-off, breaking Tosu's momentum and achieving a comfortable 3-1 victory. In a way, it can be said that both "unusual strength" and "unchanging strength" are necessary to defeat a long-standing rival.
By the way, there is a strange similarity between Tokyo and Tosu. Looking at the numbers at the end of the 9th round, Tokyo has scored 8 goals and conceded 5. On the other hand, Tosu has scored 9 goals and conceded 5. It's as if they are both solid defensively and take advantage of few opportunities.
However, the reality is different. The reason for Sagan Tosu's low score is not because they lack opportunities, but rather because they struggle to capitalize on them. On the other hand, in the case of Tokyo, they have fewer opportunities and are unable to fully utilize their attacking power. In fact, at the end of the 9th round, Tokyo's average number of shots per game is second from the bottom. They are still in the middle of figuring out how to break through the enemy's defense after bringing the ball into the attacking zone.
Given these circumstances, will it be a low-scoring battle? Of course, set pieces may also become one of the determining factors for victory or defeat. However, the biggest highlight will still be the clash of strengths between the two teams. Which team will be able to overcome the enemy's fierce press and create numerous opportunities to reach the finish line?
The team that gains the upper hand in the midfield battle will have a better chance of winning. Tokyo's Aoki, Abe, Matsuki, and Tosu's Fukuda, Fujita, and Koizumi - their intense competition is a sight to behold. From Tokyo's perspective, there are high expectations for rookie Matsuki. After all, he has no bitter memories of 5 consecutive losses like veteran Yuto Nagatomo. His brilliant performance on both offense and defense will surely become a new strength for Tokyo.
Will the battle against our arch-nemesis be successful? The answer will be revealed soon.
Text by Sato Hojo (Football Writer)
