FC Tokyo finished the 2024 season. While it was a year that saw numerous record-breaking figures in business aspects such as average attendance and annual revenue, the team also faced the reality of not being able to compete for titles. We interviewed President Shigeya Kawagishi to reflect on the year’s battles from both business and football perspectives regarding the club's current position. Following the first part that touched on the strong business side, the second part focuses on the football perspective. Despite improvements in league standings and goals compared to last season, how do we perceive the reasons for not being able to break into the true upper echelon, and what direction are we aiming to move towards?
Interview and Composition = Kei Sato (Freelance Writer)
To increase the probability of victory
──President Kawagishi has previously mentioned that "a soccer club is a business and football are two wheels that turn together." From here, I would like to ask about the football aspect. First, please share your honest thoughts on the performance for the 2024 season.
First of all, we always want to be involved in the title race, but in that regard, we were unable to reach our goal. To be honest, it is frustrating. Our league performance was 7th place, improving by four positions from 11th place in the 2023 season. However, we were significantly behind the champions Vissel Kobe in points, and there was a 10-point gap to the AFC Champions League Elite qualification zone. Among the three J1 clubs based in Tokyo, we ranked the lowest, settling into a much more subdued position than the one we envisioned at the start of the season. We were also eliminated early in the J.League YBC Levain Cup and the Emperor's Cup. It was a season that made us feel there is still much to do and many things we are lacking.
──Will the success in the business aspect be utilized in the football aspect from now on?
To begin with, we believe that it is not possible to significantly change the football aspect from the business side. The direction of the arrow is to first improve the quality of football and then figure out how to develop the business from there. Then, it is a cycle of reinvesting the business results back into football.
When I took office, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was necessary to rebuild and improve the business side, so we started from there. However, to create a positive cycle, we need to switch on the football side; otherwise, we cannot enter that cycle. Therefore, we are currently focusing on that and want to work on it. This was also mentioned in the previous interview. However, to be honest, it has not yet become the vision I had imagined. As a club, we must fully commit to this and relentlessly pursue results.
──How far have we progressed in preparing to enter the cycle of reinvestment from the business side to the football side in the three years since you became president?
I took over the baton in the 2022 season. Amid the decline in sales due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the challenge was how much budget could be allocated to the football side, including personnel expenses. This is not unique to FC Tokyo, but it is certain that we were in a very difficult situation. It could be said that we were always walking a tightrope. In that regard, Naoki Ogane, the former president and now chairman, also struggled greatly. Under such circumstances, we managed to get through without cutting the football budget too much and have been gradually increasing the budget as we move forward.
Of course, there are always costs involved in the business aspect, so we cannot invest all the increased revenue into football, but the profits we make are firmly reinvested. This applies not only to the top team but also to the academy, and we have finally reached the stage where we have started using profits across the entire football side.
That said, as stated in 'FC Tokyo VISION 2030', many may feel that the current season's performance is insufficient to instill the image of Tokyo as FC Tokyo. In particular, there may be fans and supporters who are shocked to have fallen behind the newly promoted teams, FC Machida Zelvia (3rd) and Verdy (6th).
That's right. I also declared "Tokyo is blue and red" at the new system announcement meeting and faced the season with that mindset. I couldn't make it happen, and I always have the feeling that we must be number one among the three Tokyo clubs. As FC Tokyo, which has been in J1 for a long time, we had that pride and wanted to prove it with results. I strongly feel that we cannot continue like this.
──What do you think is the reason for this result?
Simply put, we lost in football. Of course, when looking closely at the numbers, there are both good and bad aspects, so it is not a simple story. Our ranking improved from 11th to 7th, and our points also increased. The number of goals scored has also improved. The average goals per game is 1.39, which is the highest since the 2013 season led by coach Ranko POPOVIC. It could be said that we have taken a step forward in achieving our goal of "+1Goal (One More Goal)".
However, on the other hand, they were unable to reduce the number of goals conceded. With an average of 1.34 goals conceded, it was a tough figure to keep up with the top teams. The top teams have an average of around 1.0 goals conceded. There is a significant gap there. Although they scored more goals than last season, the high number of goals conceded prevented them from advancing to the top ranks. Additionally, the gap with the expected goals was also identified as an issue.
──Could you explain in detail?
Expected goals can be simply described as how many chances there were to score goals. There seem to be various calculation methods, but according to Data Stadium, FC Tokyo's expected goals were 1.21. In contrast, the average goals per match were 1.39, indicating that they scored efficiently. This means there were many cases where they converted chances despite having few opportunities. Expected goals are calculated based on a combination of factors such as the number of shots and their locations, and a low value means there were many low-probability shots. In the end, although the number of goals increased, it may have given the impression that they did not get close enough to the goal or had few chances.
It is often said that over a long season or multiple seasons, the expected goals and the actual number of goals tend to be close. This season, the number of goals increased compared to last season, so it was good to score efficiently, but I also believe this is not something that can be replicated every season.
──In that case, should the direction of team building aim to improve the expected goals?
That's right. This is something shared within the club. We cannot keep scoring unless we increase our expected goals. Looking at the top clubs in the 2024 season, Kobe and Sanfrecce Hiroshima have numbers like 1.6 or 1.8. There is a significant gap compared to us, which means we have fewer clear scoring chances. If we don't improve these numbers, our ranking won't rise either. Regarding scoring chances, it's often said that we need to improve reproducibility, but in football, although there are similar situations, it's impossible to recreate exactly the same scene. The final part depends on a combination of the players' imagination, ideas, and finishing ability. Including these aspects, we need to delve much deeper, or else the expected goals won't increase.
──Rikizo MATSUHASHI has been appointed as the new manager for the upcoming season. Did the new manager select based on such considerations?
Expected goals is merely a result indicator and serves as reference data, but it is nonetheless an important factor. The previous head coach Peter CKLAMOVSKI and the former head coach Albert PUIG ORTONEDA both posted very good numbers during the J2 League era, with high goal rates and low goals conceded rates. However, differences in league category and player roster mean these results cannot be attributed solely to the coach, and they were not directly replicated at FC Tokyo. This time, with Rikizo MATSUHASHI appointed as the new head coach, we explained what the club is seeking and, conversely, listened carefully to what Mr. MATSUHASHI was thinking, so the sharing process went smoothly. What left a strong impression was the very high resolution of the discussion. The amount of information was also tremendous.
──Please tell us the reason for choosing Coach Matsuhashi among several candidates.
FCTokyo believes that when considering changing the football we aim for, it is extremely important to understand the coach's thoughts on philosophy and how it is implemented within the team, and it is essential to proceed with a shared understanding with the club. Naturally, better communication is preferable for this. Since I became president, I have worked with two foreign coaches, and while various communications have taken place within the club, considering the current situation of the club, I thought that a Japanese coach might be better next. I believe Coach Matsuhashi is suitable in this regard. Since the end of the season and the confirmation of Coach Matsuhashi's appointment, communication and mutual understanding have rapidly progressed.
Our budget size ranks 7th to 8th in the league. To improve our standing from here, we will, of course, work hard to increase the budget. On the other hand, I believe it is also necessary to compete with coaches who can deliver good performance relative to their budget. With that in mind, I consider Coach Matsuhashi to be one of the best leaders. What left a strong impression when talking with Coach Matsuhashi was his statement, "In Tokyo, we seek the optimal solution for Tokyo." I believe that mindset is exactly what leads to bringing out the team's performance. We will have the opportunity to hear the coach's thoughts again at the new system announcement event on January 10, 2025, and I hope he will strive to find the optimal solution and fight hard.
──Finally, please share your thoughts on the relationship between business and football, Mr. Kawagishi.
There is always the reality of budget issues in a soccer club. Talking about it may seem quite dull, but from the management side, we aim to create the maximum possible budget with some leeway. The person in charge of strengthening the team works to utilize that budget effectively to build the team. Except for the 2019 season, we have generally ranked according to the size of our budget. In the 2024 season, we finished 7th in the J1 League and were unable to significantly outperform our budget. We want to change this and create a cycle where becoming a strong team leads to an increase in management scale. Whether it’s choosing the coach, team formation, operations, or management, every individual involved with the club needs to increase their output to generate new chemical reactions that will transform the team. We want the 2025 season to be a year where we clearly demonstrate that power to everyone.
The first part is here
