FC Tokyo finished the 2024 season. It was a year in which they updated many record high numbers in terms of business, such as average attendance and annual sales, but also faced the reality of not being able to compete for titles as a team. An interview with President Shigeya Kawagishi, looking back on the year from both a business and football perspective, about the current state of the club. Following the first part, which touched on the strong business side, the second part focuses on football. How do they view the reasons for not being able to break into the true top competition, despite improving their league ranking and goals scored compared to last season, and what direction are they heading in?
Coverage and composition by Kei Sato (freelance writer)
To increase the chances of winning
──President Kawagishi has been talking about the idea that "football clubs have two wheels, business and football" for a long time. Now, I would like to ask about the football aspect. First of all, please tell us your honest thoughts on the results of the 2024 season.
First of all, I always have the desire to be involved in the title race, but I couldn't achieve that goal. To be honest, it's frustrating. Our league record was 7th place, and we were able to move up four places from 11th place in the 2023 season. However, we were far behind Vissel Kobe, who won the championship, and there was a 10-point difference in points for the AFC Champions League elite spot. Among the three J1 clubs based in Tokyo, we had the lowest ranking, and we ended up in a much calmer position than we had envisioned at the beginning of the season. We were also eliminated in the early stages of the J.League YBC Levain Cup and Emperor's Cup. There are still many things we need to do, and it was a season where we felt we were lacking in many areas.
Will we be able to utilize our success in the business aspect in the football aspect from now on?
Speaking in general terms, I believe it is not possible to drastically change the football aspect from a business perspective. As for the direction, it will be a sequence of improving the content of football and then figuring out how to expand it into business. And it will be a cycle of reinvesting the results in football in business.
For us, when I took office, we needed to work on rebuilding and raising the business side due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so we started from here. However, in order to maintain a good cycle, we need to turn on the football switch, otherwise we cannot enter that cycle. So we are currently focusing on that and working on it. This was also mentioned in the previous interview. However, at the moment, it is a genuine feeling that it has not become the picture I had envisioned. As a club, we are determined to work on it with all our might and strive for results.
──What progress has been made in the three years since becoming president in preparing for the cycle of reinvestment from the business side to the football side?
I took over the baton in the 2022 season. In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was difficult to allocate budget for football, including personnel costs. This was not limited to FC Tokyo, but it was certainly a very challenging situation. I think it's fair to say that we were always walking a tightrope. Even the previous president and chairman, Naoki Ogane, had a lot of difficulties in such a situation. We are managing to get through without cutting the budget for football too much, and gradually increasing it.
Of course, there are always costs involved in the business side, so we cannot invest all of the increased sales into football, but we are firmly putting the profits back into it. This applies not only to the top team, but also to the academy, and we have finally reached the stage where we are starting to use the profits for the entire football aspect.
──However, as stated in "FC Tokyo VISION 2030", I think there are many people who feel that the performance of this season is not enough to permeate the image of Tokyo = FC Tokyo. In particular, there may be fans and supporters who are shocked by the fact that they were left behind by FC Machida Zelvia (3rd place) and Tokyo Verdy (6th place), both of which are newly promoted teams.
That's right. I also declared at the new system announcement that "Tokyo is blue and red" and faced the season. I couldn't make it happen, and I always have the feeling that we have to be number one among the three clubs in Tokyo. As FC Tokyo, who has been in J1 for a long time, I had that pride and wanted to prove it with results. I strongly feel that we can't continue like this.
──What do you think is the reason for this result?
It means we simply lost in football. Of course, when you look at the numbers in detail, there are both good and bad aspects, so it's not a simple story. Our ranking has risen from 11th to 7th place, and our points have also increased. Our goal scoring has also improved. Our average goals per game is 1.39, which is the highest since coach Ranko POPOVIC led the team in the 2013 season. It could be said that we have taken a step forward in achieving our goal of "+1Goal".
However, on the other hand, we were unable to reduce the number of goals conceded. With an average of 1.34 goals, it was a tough number to keep up with the top teams. The average number of goals conceded by the top teams was around 1.0. There was a significant difference there. Although we were able to score more goals than last season, the high number of goals conceded prevented us from making it to the top. Another issue we noticed was the gap between our expected goals and actual goals.
- Can you explain specifically?
The goal expectancy is simply how many chances there were to score a goal. There seem to be various calculation methods, but according to Data Stadium, FC Tokyo's goal expectancy was 1.21. In contrast, the average number of goals per game was 1.39, so it can be said that they efficiently scored points. This means that they were able to score with fewer chances. The expectancy value is calculated from the combination of the number of shots and the location where they were taken, so a low value means that there were many low probability shots. In the end, although the number of goals increased, it may have given the impression that they were not able to reach the goal or had few chances.
It is often said that the expected number of goals and the actual number of goals become close to each other as the season or seasons repeat. This season, the number of goals increased compared to last season, so it was good to score efficiently, but I also think that this cannot be reproduced every season.
──If so, should the direction of team building be to improve the expected goal value?
Yes, that's right. That's the part we share in the club. We can't keep scoring if we don't increase our expected goal value. Looking at the top clubs in the 2024 season, Kobe and Sanfrecce Hiroshima have numbers like 1.6 or 1.8. There is a big difference between us, and that means we have fewer chances to score. If we don't improve this number, we won't be able to climb up in the rankings. When it comes to scoring opportunities, it's often said that we need to increase reproducibility, but on the other hand, even if there are similar scenes, soccer is a sport where we can't reproduce the exact same scene. In the end, it comes down to the players' imagination, ideas, and finishing ability. We need to push ourselves even further in these areas in order to increase our expected goal value.
──Rikizo MATSUHASHI has been appointed as the new coach for the upcoming season. Did the new coach make this decision based on such thoughts?
The expected goal value is only an indicator of results and is a reference data, but it is still one of the important elements. The previous coach, Peter Cklamovski, and the former coach, Albert Puig Ortoneda, both left very good numbers during their time in J2 League, with a high goal rate and a low conceded goal rate. However, there were differences in categories and players, and it was not solely due to the coach, so it could not be reproduced in FC Tokyo. This time, with the new coach Rikizo Matsuhashi, we explained what the club is looking for and also listened to what Matsuhashi is thinking, and the sharing went smoothly. What was impressive was the high resolution of the conversation. The amount of information was also tremendous.
──Please tell us the reason for choosing Coach Matsubashi among several candidates.
FCWhen considering changing the football that FC Tokyo aims for, it is extremely important to understand the philosophy and how the coach thinks about incorporating it into the team. It is essential to proceed with a common understanding with the club. In order to do so, it is better to have deeper communication. Since becoming president, I have worked with two foreign coaches, and although we have various communications within the club, considering the current situation of the club, I thought it might be better to have a Japanese coach next. I think Coach Matsubashi is suitable in that regard. Since the end of the season and the decision for Coach Matsubashi to take over, communication and mutual understanding have progressed rapidly.
Our budget scale is 7th to 8th in the league. In order to improve our ranking from here, we will work hard to increase our budget. On the other hand, I also believe it is necessary to fight against coaches who can perform well with the budget. In that regard, I consider Coach Matsubashi to be one of the best leaders. What was impressive when talking with Coach Matsubashi was that he said, "We will look for the best solution in Tokyo." I think this is the mindset that leads to the team's performance. We will be able to hear the coach's thoughts again at the new system announcement on January 10, 2025, but I hope they will continue to search for the best solution and fight for it.
──Please let us hear Mr. Kawagishi's thoughts from the perspective of business and football once again.
Football clubs always face the reality of budget constraints. It may not be a pleasant topic, but as a management team, we strive to create the maximum budget and the strengthening team's job is to effectively utilize that budget to build a strong team. Except for the 2019 season, we have generally ranked within our budget size. In the 2024 season, we finished 7th in the J1 league and were unable to perform well compared to our budget. We want to change this and create a cycle where we become a strong team and increase our management scale. We want to see a new chemical reaction within the club, where each and every person involved in the club, from choosing the coach to team formation, operation, and management, can increase their output and change the team. In the 2025 season, we want to show you the power of this change.
First part is here
